Tesla’s future lies in humanoid robots?

As global electric vehicle sales show signs of slowing, Tesla is shifting its strategy to an ambitious goal: the humanoid robot Optimus. According to a recent bombshell announcement from Tesla CEO Elon Musk, about 80% of Tesla’s future value will come from these autonomous robots, not the car business that has made the company famous.

This is highlighted in the newly released “Master Plan Part IV,” which outlines a new vision for Tesla where physical AI and robotics play a central role.

Elon Musk’s announcement comes at a sensitive time as Tesla’s car sales are struggling. Global deliveries fell 13% in the first half of 2025, marking the second consecutive year of decline.

Instead of focusing on the current challenge, however, Elon Musk has made a big bet on the future. He believes that the Optimus robot, which will be first introduced in 2021, will take over monotonous and dangerous factory jobs, freeing humans to do more meaningful work.

Physical AI: The Next Revolution

Elon Musk’s vision is not unique in the market. Leading tech leaders, like Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang, have also pointed to “physical AI” as the final evolution of artificial intelligence. Nvidia recently introduced a $3,499 development kit for a robot “brain,” showing how serious tech giants are about the field.

Kevin Cook, senior equity strategist at Zacks Investment Research, said Tesla’s move toward other types of autonomous machines makes sense, given that the company has 15 years of experience training its electric vehicles with AI systems.

However, the transition has not been easy for Tesla. Project Optimus was initially met with skepticism and has repeatedly encountered obstacles.

Earlier this year, Elon Musk predicted Tesla would produce thousands of Optimus robots by 2025, but later admitted that production was being hampered by trade disputes and export controls on rare earth materials from China.

Milan Kovac, who oversaw Optimus development, even resigned in June, highlighting the internal challenges the project faces.

The robot market is heating up

While Tesla struggles to live up to its promises, the market for humanoid robots has become increasingly vibrant, with Morgan Stanley predicting it will reach $5 trillion by 2050.

Startups like Figure AI have raised hundreds of millions of dollars from big investors like Jeff Bezos, Microsoft, and Nvidia. Competitors from China are also growing rapidly, with industrial robot sales expected to double between 2017 and 2024.

HSBC Qianhai’s report even highlighted that the market may have overlooked the advances of Chinese humanoid robot suppliers, whose commercialization is proceeding faster than foreign competitors.

This puts Tesla in a very challenging position, in that while Tesla’s “manufacturing guidelines” are considered the benchmark for measuring progress in large-scale humanoid robot production, they will have to work very hard to compete with dozens of small startups working with lower costs and open source, as well as big players like Figure AI.

Tesla’s “Master Plan, Part IV,” released via a post on X , presents a broader vision for a world of sustainable prosperity. Tesla states its mission is to “deliver uncompromised sustainability without compromise.”

The company believes that combining manufacturing capabilities with autonomous capabilities will deliver new products and services that drive global prosperity and human development.

The plan emphasizes that “growth is limitless” and that “resource shortages can be overcome with advanced technology, greater innovation, and new ideas.” Tesla has overcome technological limitations in battery development and is now aiming to reshape the fundamentals of labor, mobility, and energy.

However, the plan lacks specific details and clear timelines, especially for the Optimus project. Elon Musk has only vaguely stated that he hopes to deliver robots to other companies in the second half of 2026. Still, Tesla’s vision is undeniable.

They are betting on a future where autonomous robots will free humans from boring and dangerous jobs, allowing them more time to do what they love.

“Every journey worth taking is long,” the master plan concludes. “And they all begin with the first step.” For Tesla, the next step isn’t an electric car, but a leap into the world of AI and humanoid robots.